Post 9: The Bell Curve of TIme

Rogers; Diffusion of Innovations (or Ideas) has a bell curve about how new inventions and concepts become part of society. Time uses the X-axis and Penetration uses the Y-axis. During the experimental phase, presence stays a bit static. Early adopters sends it into a steep rise with it peaking at the Early majority. The peak is the Critical Mass. Late adopter start the slow decline until it steeply drops with Laggards coming after it was popular indefinitely. 

In the Video Game Industry, we see this pattern with every Generation. For context, console Generations change when more powerful and upgraded systems hit the market. We are currently transitioning from the 8th Generation to the 9th with the PlayStation 4 to the PlayStation 5. At the beginning of these, we will see prototypes of new hardware at conferences like E3. Some game demos will be shown off and some will be playable. There will be die hard fans who will preorder these systems to get Day 1. I would say our Early Adopters to Early Majority depends on the system. It takes about 1 to 3 years for most systems to peak and sales rise around Christmas. Late adopters come near or during the announcement of the next upgrade. Laggards are usually people who don't care too much about video games, can't afford the latest system, or are collectors. The indefinite period of Laggards fits the collection hobby really well because game companies will stop manufacturing these systems after a while and small communities will keep supporting their favorite systems. What keeps game companies afloat are how they announce the upgrade around the Critical Mass. Players will eventually get tired of the same system after a while so making the graphics better and adding a few innovations will give them a new start with the bell curve. 

For me, I have grown tired of this cycle, so I have moved to playing video games on PC. This platform leaves upgrades up to the customer allowing for more freedom with the system. If your computer can handle the game, you can play it. Learning of the Diffusion of Innovations theory is making me wonder if home consoles like the PlayStation will die out. I am getting tired of my games becoming obsolete in less than 5 years and being locked out of playing older Generation games on the newer systems. Everything dies out eventually.